The political landscape in the United States has undergone a significant shift with Kamala Harris emerging as the Democratic Party’s new presidential candidate. Her selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate has added another layer of complexity to the upcoming election.
As the campaign enters its early stages, two critical issues remain at the forefront of Canada-U.S. relations: trade and security. Harris’ past voting record and statements on trade agreements have raised questions about the future of bilateral economic relations. However, her progressive stance on climate change and labor issues could potentially reshape discussions surrounding trade agreements and their reviews in the coming years.
A New Democratic Ticket Emerges
The Democratic National Convention in Chicago marked a dramatic turn in the U.S. presidential race when Kamala Harris was unveiled as the party’s new candidate. She quickly announced Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, forming a fresh ticket that has caught many by surprise.
Harris on Trade
Kamala Harris’ stance on trade has become a point of interest for Canada. As a senator, she was one of only ten who voted against the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), also known as CUSMA. Her opposition was based on the agreement’s perceived inadequacies in addressing climate change.
Canadian Officials Engage with Harris Team
Canada’s Ambassador to the U.S., Kirsten Hillman, has been actively working to understand Harris’ current position on trade. Hillman attended both the Democratic and Republican national conventions to gather insights. The ambassador emphasized that Harris’ vote against CUSMA was primarily due to environmental concerns, not anti-trade sentiment towards Canada.
Recent Trade Tensions
Recent developments have highlighted ongoing trade challenges between the U.S. and Canada. This month saw a doubling of softwood lumber tariffs on Canadian wood entering the United States. This significant increase in tariffs serves as a reminder of the potential for trade disputes to flare up.
Tim Walz: A Familiar Face
The selection of Tim Walz as Harris’ running mate offers a potential bright spot for Canada-U.S. relations. As the governor of Minnesota, Walz is well-acquainted with Canada and its economic importance. Minnesota exports $7 billion worth of goods to Canada annually, making it the state’s top export destination.
Immigration Policy Collaboration
Harris, with her background of attending high school in Montreal, might look to Canada for immigration policy insights if elected. The Democratic Party’s 2024 platform aims to address immigration challenges, potentially involving Canada in resettlement efforts for Central American migrants.
Union Support and Potential Impact
Harris has received endorsements from numerous labor unions, and there was a significant labor presence at the Democratic National Convention. While trade wasn’t a major focus of Harris’ keynote speech, labor issues were prominently featured. Her progressive stance on climate and labor could potentially influence future trade discussions and negotiations.
CUSMA Review on the Horizon
The scheduled review of CUSMA in 2026 could take on new significance under a Harris administration. Her progressive positions on climate change and labor rights may influence the focus and tone of these discussions. This could lead to a reevaluation of certain aspects of the agreement, particularly in areas related to environmental protections and workers’ rights.
Harris on Foreign Policy
In her convention speech, Harris outlined key aspects of her foreign policy vision. She emphasized standing by Ukraine and NATO, addressing the war in Gaza, and ensuring America maintains the “strongest, most lethal fighting force in the world.” For Canada, this could mean continued expectations for increased defense spending and active participation in international security efforts.
NATO Spending Pressures
The issue of defense spending within NATO has been a long-standing point of discussion between the U.S. and its allies. Canada recently announced plans to meet the NATO benchmark of spending 2% of GDP on defense by 2032. This commitment came just days before the NATO summit in Washington, addressing longstanding U.S. pressure for allies to increase their defense budgets.
Calls for Accelerated Spending
Former Canadian Finance Minister Bill Morneau has suggested that Canada should accelerate its timeline for reaching the 2% defense spending target. He argued that despite the significant cost, estimated at an additional $15 billion annually, increased defense spending is crucial for maintaining strong relations with the US and other allies.
Fiscal Restraint vs. Defense Spending
The call for increased defense spending comes at a time when there are also concerns about fiscal restraint in Canada. Morneau, who has previously urged the government to exercise more fiscal discipline, insists that both goals are achievable through “tough choices.” This highlights the complex balancing act facing Canadian policymakers as they navigate international commitments and domestic economic priorities.
Climate Change and Trade
Harris’ emphasis on climate change, as evidenced by her opposition to CUSMA on environmental grounds, could reshape the U.S.-Canada trade discussions. Future trade negotiations or reviews might place a greater emphasis on environmental protections and sustainability measures. This could present both challenges and opportunities for Canadian industries, particularly those in the energy and natural resources sectors.
Focus on Bilateral Cooperation
Discussions between Harris and Canadian officials have highlighted an interest in building “resilient supply chains” between the two countries. This focus on supply chain cooperation could become a central theme in bilateral relations under a Harris administration. Such an approach might lead to new initiatives aimed at strengthening and securing critical supply chains across various industries.
The Road to 2024
As the U.S. presidential race enters its final ten-week stretch, uncertainty remains a key factor for Canada-U.S. relations. The potential for significant policy shifts under a Harris administration requires careful preparation and strategic thinking from Canadian officials and businesses.
Adapting to a Changing Landscape
Regardless of the election outcome, Canada-U.S. relations are likely to face both challenges and opportunities in the coming years. The potential for new approaches to trade, climate policy, and defense spending under a Harris administration would require adaptability from Canadian policymakers.
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